Rob's Place

Check My Math

So it's been a while since I did any probabilities, and I needed to figure out some sort of measure for the occurence of particular cards in the card game I'm designing.  So follow my logic and see if I did this right.

You have a deck of n cards, from which you will draw a hand of h cards.  There are dozes of card types in the game.  For a particular type, say there are k copies of the card in the deck.  I want to know the chance on the first draw of five cards that you have at least one of cards of that particular type.

So I want to solve for the opposite case and then subtract from 1.  Now the problem is: what is the chance that you will draw a hand containing none of the cards of a particular card type.

a) Chance of not drawing cards that occur k times in a deck of size n into a hand of size h:

(n - k) Choose h / n Choose h

Where the function n Choose m = n! / (m! (n - m)!) and is used to determine how many combinations there are of n items taken m at a time.

b) So we invert the probability and get:

1 - ((n - k) Choose h / n Choose h)

The test values look good, but I want to make sure the math is right.  If you have a deck of 64 cards and a given card has 8 copies, the chance of drawing it into your first hand of 5 cards is 0.48, which seems about right.  If a card only has one copy, it's 0.077.

Anyone else whose statistics is less than 20 years rusty have any clue?

POSH - LIke Having an Iron Chef Cook for You

Last night we went to POSH near downtown Scottsdale.  They hand you a list of available proteins and ask you to cross off any you don't like and list other ingredients you either don't like or are allergic to.  Then they make up courses for you from the ones they've planned that evening.  Kris and I had different courses, and it looked like there were about 4 choices per course that night.  So it's not quite prepared for each guest, but everyone at a four-top would have a unique dish.

Their protein list included standards like kobe beef and quail, as well as some entries I haven't seen elsewhere, like skate and kangaroo!  I left mine blank, and Kris crossed off shrimp (she doesn't like them).  We chose the 6 course meal and they started bringing us plates.

Rob's Meal
Amuse - Apricot poached in red wine with fresh mint
Salad - Pea tendrils with picked red onion and goat cheese
Appetizer - Frog legs with a bacon reduction
Fish Course - Salmon with morrel mushrooms and fava beans
Main Course - Braised short ribs with broccoli and a broccoli cream sauce
Cheese Course - A firm goat, a soft cow, and the best blue I've had in ages (from Spain)
Dessert - Buttermilk panacotta with fresh berries with spun sugar + chocolate pate with white chocolate lace
Snack - Pistachio shortbread cookie, merange cookie, and pistachio brittle
Final - Meyer lemon lolipop made on the antigriddle

Kris's Meal
Amuse - Apricot poached in red wine with fresh mint
Salad - Micro-greens with cherries and blue cheese
Appetizer - Hamachi in a yellow tomato broth
Fish Course - Skate with braised onions and carrots
Main Course - Kobe medallion with a scallion reduction
Cheese Course - A firm goat, a soft cow, and the best blue I've had in ages (from Spain)
Dessert - Buttermilk panacotta with fresh berries with spun sugar + dark chocolate wafers with a white chocolate mousse filling
Snack - Pistachio shortbread cookie, merange cookie, and pistachio brittle
Final - Meyer lemon lolipop made on the antigriddle

The wine list was very complete as well.  I started with a Pino Noir and then shifted to a Pecorino (which I'd never had) later.

New Eiben Arts Site Up

I've finally gotten around to producing a catalog of prints for sale and created the new Eiben Arts site where our photography, painting, and writing can be found.  It can be found here.  I've closed all the existing limited editions and moved the first batch of my current prints into a legacy catalog.  The new limited editions will all be singletons, 1 of 1, and each piece will be unique.  I'll also be implementing some stylistic changes that I've been experimenting with.

Outdoor Concert

We left our hibernation long enough to go to an outdoor concert, now that the temperature has dipped below 100.  We saw Augustana, Maroon 5, and Counting Crows.  As usual, Kris and I overprepared by bringing hats and extra water and sunblock, all for naught of course.  Two thunderstorms rolled through during the evening, one before the show and one during an intermission.  Luckilly our seats were under the awning anyway, so we didn't get wet nor would we have been fried by the sun.

I like all three bands, but our favorite was Augustana, the opening band.  That is so like us.

While we were hibernating this summer we bought some more furniture to replace our Ikea placeholders, built two gaming machines, and fixed a toilet.  Yay for house maintenance.  I'll have to get some photos up of the new living room layout.

Now that fall has arrived and we can go outside again, the hiking will be ramping up soon.  I'll have more updates then.

[kris] Catching up

Wow, has it been 3 weeks?  Well, here's a hiking news recap.

Two weeks ago, we re-hiked Lost Dog, without Rob's camera, and we made it to our goal in good time!  The lookout affords some really cool views of the city.

 

Last week we made our first attempt of the season of Pinnacle Peak.  It was more difficult than we were used to -- 550' from highest to lowest point, including a 300' saddle "dip", in 1.75 miles, and then turn around and  do it again to get back.  Made it about halfway.  That halfway included getting to the highest point on the trail...

and I found my new house.  What do you think?

 

Yesterday we tried Pinnacle again, this time with the goal of getting to the saddle and back with as few breaks as possible.  Wow that was tough, but we made it!  So that was 300', twice, in a little more than 2 miles.  Getting there took 30 mins, getting back took 34, so about an hour of hiking total.   Luckily there were nice overlooks a bit down from the high point on both sides, with markers pointing out different peaks, where we could have a good long rest.

Oh, and I have to show you this.  Near the start of the trail is a really cool saguaro.  Check it out!

[kris] Lost Dog

So, we took the advice of one of Rob's hiking friends at work and checked out Lost Dog Wash Trail this weekend.  How was it?  You'll have to check the photolog to find out.

(BTW yes, we did go on that 4 mile hike last weekend.  4.5 miles actually.  Had a great time.  Didn't bring the camera, though.)

Lookout Mountain Redux

Hello from the top of Lookout Mountain in North Phoenix.  It only took us 3 hikes to make it to the top, and we did it in 40 minutes, which is 10 minutes better than the last time.

It was a perfect day on the mountain, with the terrain all strangely green instead of brown.  You can see the other peaks around Lookout mountain behind me, and, of course, the city.

Kris tried to take a picture of our house, which is about 6 miles that way (6 blocks).  It's hard to make out, but it's somewhere in that direction between here and the far mountain range.

This is a view of Shangrila, the valley that we don't quite know how to get into.  We wonder if the people who live down in that valley even know they're in a big city.  Notice all the green.  Very odd.

Finally, Phoenix is known for the brown cloud that hangs around, since there's usually so much dust in the air.  On this day the clouds around the city proper were white, not brown.  It still amazes me to be standing on a mountain top right smack in the middle of a city of 3.5 million people.  This weekend we're changing altitude for endurance.  Instead of a 1/2 mile 500' ascent, we're going for a 4 mile, 200' ascent.  Should be fun.

[kris] Back In The Saddle

We're back!  After what seemed like an eternity of playing "Pass-The-Cold," Rob and I are finally both healthy at the same time.  As an added bonus, the Phoenix winter is over, and really nice weather is here.  (I'm wearing shorts right now, not to gloat or anything.)  To celebrate, we decided to hike to the saddle of our old friend Lookout Mountain -- and it had a surprise waiting for us.

Green!  The mountain was completely green.  Such a change from the brown mountain we'd been hiking in the fall.  It was totally worth the runny nose as my allergies asked, "What is that stuff coming up out of the ground?"

If you look closely, you'll see that it's not actually grass.  Most of it is a cool light-green scrub interspersed with yellow wildflowers.  (We call them "wildflowers" out here, not "weeds.")

Every once in a while we'd see these little purple flowers.  Not sure what they are, but we liked them. 

The only spots that weren't green were the trails and the rockfalls.  It made it easy to follow the trail, except where a rockfall actually crossed the trail.  Some (crazy) people just followed the rockfalls up.

When we finally reached the saddle, we found that even Shangri-La had burst to life.  Perhaps they were preparing a Spring Festival with streamers and candles hung from the trees, and garlands in their hair.  OK, probably not :)

The New American Majority

[Source]

If you voted for Bush, all is forgiven.  Come join the new American Majority.  There is now Hope.

"We know it takes more than one night – or even one election – to overcome decades of money and the influence; bitter partisanship and petty bickering that’s shut you out, let you down and told you to settle.

We know our road will not be easy.

But we also know that at this moment the cynics can no longer say our hope is false.   

We have now won east and west, north and south, and across the heartland of this country we love. We have given young people a reason to believe, and brought folks back to the polls who want to believe again. And we are bringing together Democrats and Independents and Republicans; blacks and whites; Latinos and Asians; small states and big states; Red States and Blue States into a United States of America.

This is the new American majority. This is what change looks like when it happens from the bottom up. And in this election, your voices will be heard."

Thanksgiving

Here it is nearly Christmas and I haven't told you about Thanksgiving!  Kris and I went to the Zinc Bistro over at Kierlands, a resort and shopping area about a mile from the house.  Every year they have a special Thanksgiving Day menu, which is a six course meal.

1. AMUSE - spiced pumpkin veloute.  This was more than an amuse, it was essentially a cup of pumpkin soup.  Very rich and creamy.

2. ROAST CORN AND KING CRAB CAESAR - romaine, crab remoulade, gougeres.  A lovely caesar salad with extremely fresh crab.

3. WHOLE ROASTED POUSSIN - Bobs braised rainbow chard, pancetta, confit leg, gizzard and sherry "gravy".  The poultry course had perfectly crisped skin and a rich gizzard sauce.  It was amazing.

4. MAINE LEMON SOLE, OYSTER STUFFING - vermouth glaze, black trumpet consomme.  Another winner, the sole was cooked perfectly and the black trumpet consumme fit the dish well.  Kris had her black trumpet mushrooms off to the side, which I thought meant she was saving them.  Turns out she didn't know they were edible.  So she got to eat all her black trumpets at once!  They are one of my favorite mushrooms.

At this point our server realized he hadn't changed out our silver, but after the fish course he insisted.  We got fresh silver after each course from this point on.  He also recommended a Shiraz.  We had been drinking white (a Pinot Grigio for me and a Reisling for Kris) but he thought we should switch to red for the main course.  No problem!  He brought us the bottle and I read the lablel, which told me nothing of course, but wine is all about the ceremony anyway, especially at $14 a glass!

5. SORGHUM BRAISED LAMB SHANK - and winter root vegetable ragout, horseradish and dill creme fraiche.  The lamb shank was meltingly good, perfectly carmelized and very rich.  The creme fraiche cut the richness a bit, but even so Kris had to bring some home.  It was a very filling main course, and as a bonus it was Kris's favorite meat.  The Shiraz went well with it, so it was a good choice.  Score another one for our server.

6. MIN PIES - apple caramel, walnut chocolate, sweet potato bourbon.  The dessert course was a set of 3 pies.  The sweet potato tasted much like a pumpkin pie, so if the walnut could stand in for pecans, we had all three traditional Thanksgiving pies.  Neither of us could finish these, but they traveled well and we had them the next day.

This was a very generous tasting menu, almost too much for us to eat.  As it is, we skipped breakfast and lunch the next day!  Our server was great and really took care of us.  His wife was a chef and he was going to a 10 course Thanksgiving dinner that night with her!  I don't think I can come up with 10 courses (let's see: amuse, cheese, bread?, salad, soup, pasta, fish, poultry, main, dessert).  Maybe they do two main courses, I dunno.  In any case, our 6 course made for a fun Thanksgiving.  Unless we have friends or family around next year, we might do it again!